The Aspect of Affairs in Russia

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This article was occasioned by the floating on the London Stock Exchange in March 1871 of Russia’s loan of £12 million. This article, first published in The Pall Mall Gazette on March 16, 1871, was included in a lithographic edition of Engels’ series of articles Notes on the War, which came out in Vienna in 1923, and was subsequently reprinted with the Notes on the War.

TO THE EDITOR OF THE PALL MALL GAZETTE

Sir,—

The English Government declare that they know nothing of an alliance between Russia and Prussia. In Germany nobody disputes the existence of such an alliance; on the contrary, the pro-Prussian press exults in the fact, the anti-Prussian papers are indignant at it. One of the latter, the Volksstaat, thinks that Mr. Gladstone merely intended to insinuate by his dénégations that this was not a treaty of alliance, but rather of vassalage, and that in this case he would be in the right. Indeed, the telegrams exchanged between Versailles and St. Petersburg, between “Yours till death, William,” and his more reserved nephew Alexander, leave no longer any room for doubt as to the relations existing between what are now the two great military monarchies of the Continent. These telegrams, by the way, were first published in the Journal de St. Pétersbourgd ; and what is quite as significant is the fact that they have not been reprinted in their full tenor in the German press, the Emperor William’s assurance of devotion till death being especially suppressed. At all events, the full context of the correspondence cannot leave a doubt that the Emperor William means to express the deep sense of the obligation under which he considers himself to be towards Russia, and his readiness to place his services in return at Russia’s disposal. The Emperor being past seventy, and his presumptive heir’s sentiments being doubtful, there is certainly a strong incentive for Russia to strike the iron while it is hot.

Moreover, the internal situation in Russia is far from satisfactory. The finances are almost helplessly deranged; the peculiar form in which the emancipation of the serfs and the other social and political changes connected with it have been carried out has disturbed agricultural production to an almost incredible degree. The half-measures of a liberal character which in turn have been accorded, retracted, and again accorded, have given to the educated classes just elbow-room enough to develop a distinct public opinion; and that public opinion is upon all points opposed to the foreign policy the present Government have hitherto appeared to follow. Public opinion in Russia is essentially and violently Panslavist—that is to say, antagonistic to the three great “oppressors” of the Slavonic race: the Germans, the Hungarians, and the Turks. A Prussian alliance is as distasteful to it as would be an Austrian or a Turkish alliance. It demands, besides, immediate warlike action, in a Panslavist sense. The quiet, slow, but eminently safe underground action of Russian traditional diplomacy sorely tries its patience. Such successes as were obtained at the Conference, important though they be in themselves, are as nought to the Russian Panslavists. They hear nothing but the “cry of anguish” of their oppressed brethren in race; they feel nothing more intensely than the necessity of restoring the lost supremacy of holy Russia by a grand coup, a war of conquest. They know, moreover, that the Heir Presumptive is one of them. All this considered, and the grand strategic railway lines towards the south and south-west having now been completed far enough to serve efficiently for purposes of attack against Austria or Turkey, or both, is there not a strong inducement for the Russian Government and for the Emperor Alexander personally to apply the old Bonapartist means, and to stave off internal difficulties by a foreign war while the Prussian alliance appears still safe?

Under such circumstances the new Russian loan of twelve millions sterling obtains a very peculiar significance. It is true, a patriotic protest has been circulated at the Stock Exchange—it is stated to have been without signatures, and appears to have remained so—and we are told that the amount of the loan has been more than covered. What purposes, among others, these twelve millions are to be used for we are informed by the Ostsee Zeitung, of Stettin, a paper which for many years not only has had the very best information about Russian affairs, but which also has had the independence to publish it. The Franco-German war, says the Petersburg correspondent of this paper (under date of March 4, new style), has convinced the Russian military authorities of the total inefficiency of the system of fortification hitherto followed in the construction of the Russian fortresses, and the Ministry of War has already settled the plan for the necessary alterations.

“It is reported that the new system, based upon the introduction of detached forts, is to be applied, in the first instance, to the more important frontier fortresses, the reconstruction of which is to be commenced forthwith. The first fortresses which are to be provided with detached forts are Brest-Litowski, Demblin, and Modlin.”

Now, Brest-Litowski, Demblin (or Iwangorod), and Modlin (or Nowo-Georgiewsk, by its official Russian name), are exactly the three fortresses which, with Warsaw as a central point, command the greater portion of the kingdom of Poland; and Warsaw does not receive any detached forts now, for the very good reason that it has had them for many a year past. Russia, then, loses no time in fastening her hold upon Poland, and in strengthening her base of operations against Austria, and the hurry with which this is done is of no good augury for the peace of Europe.

All this may still be called purely defensive armament. But the correspondent in question has not done yet: —

“The warlike preparations in Russia, which were commenced at the outbreak of the Franco-German war, are continued with unabated zeal. Lately the Ministry of War has ordered the formation of the fourth battalions. The execution of this order has already begun with all regiments, those in the kingdom of Poland included. The detachments set apart for the railway and telegraph service in the field, as well as the sanitary companies, have already been organized. The men are actively instructed and drilled in their various duties, and the sanitary companies are even taught how to apply the first bandages to wounded, how to stop bleeding, and how to bring round men who have fainted.”

Now in almost every great continental army the regiments of infantry consist, on the peace footing, of three battalions, and the first unmistakable step from the peace-footing to the war-footing is the formation of the fourth battalions. On the day Louis Napoleon declared war, he also ordered the formation of the fourth battalions. In Prussia, their formation is the very first thing done after the receipt of the order for mobilization. In Austria it is the same, and so it is in Russia. Whatever may be thought of the suddenly revealed necessity of detached forts for the Polish fortresses, or of the equally sudden empressement to introduce into the Russian service the Prussian Krankentrage and railway and telegraph detachments (in a country where both railways and telegraphs are rather scarce)—here, in the formation of the fourth battalions, we have an unmistakable sign that Russia has actually passed the line which divides the peace footing from the war footing. Nobody can imagine that Russia has taken this step without a purpose; and if this step means anything, it means attack against somebody. Perhaps that explains what the twelve millions sterling are wanted for.—

Yours, &c,

E.