Letter to Rudolf Engels, January 10, 1865

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To Rudolf Engels in Barmen

[Manchester,] 10 January 1865

Dear Rudolf,

My view of the American war is this: the South is gradually becoming exhausted and cannot replace its armies. The North has not yet mobilised the half of its resources. The South is limited to defence, so much so in fact that counter-attacks such as, e.g., Longstreet undertook in the Shenandoah Valley, are now a thing of the past. Hood attempted yet another one, but, in so doing, revealed his own impotence and decided the whole campaign at one stroke. The North is superior to its Southern opponents at all points and, furthermore, has Sherman’s 40,000 men at its disposal who can go wheresoever they please, everywhere destroying the South’s forces, communications, resources and supplies deep in the South’s own territory. Charleston is certain to fall in 4-6 weeks at the latest, once Sherman has encircled it on land. The South has but one army left, that at Richmond. That will assuredly be quite decisively beaten in the present year, and with that the defence of the South by armies will be at an end. A guerrilla war, brigandry, etc., may then ensue and will probably do so into next year.

If the South arms its Negroes, that will be so much the better for the North. However, they will take good care not to. At the last moment, if at all. The Negroes are not so stupid as to allow themselves to be massacred for the whip that flays their backs.

There will certainly still be moments when things look better for the South than they do now, but we have seen that happen too often before, and I shall not be deceived by that. Such moments are merely a respite.

I do not believe we shall get cotton from America; but I do believe we shall see a temporary fall. Cotton is at present so subject to speculation that prices are affected by every vicissitude of public opinion. There are, moreover, 500,000 bales in Liverpool, and the people here do have a tendency to fly to extremes immediately and shout: the South is done for, is bound to surrender in 14 days, etc — a rise is thereby inconceivable. We shall be at the mercy of whatever news we receive, though always with the proviso that we know the stock in Liverpool to be double what it was last year. I also believe we shall see the year 1865 close below present prices, as we must expect more cotton from all parts.

Your
Friedrich